Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
